Based on report updates Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC):

For 2020-21, lentil exports fell sharply to 2.4 Mt, from the previous year. Exports of red lentils were 1.4 Mt while 1.0 Mt were green lentils. The main markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was unchanged from 2019-20 at below 0.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks rose to 0.4 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was 33% higher than it was for 2019-20. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained an average crop year premium of $135/t over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2021-22, lentil production is forecast to fall by 34% to 1.9 Mt, the smallest Canadian lentil crop in nine years. Larger abandonment and reduced yields are expected due to drought in Western Canada. Total green lentil area rose, while red lentil area decreased marginally. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 87% of the lentil production, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Supply is also forecast to decrease sharply due to the reduction in yields, despite larger carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall to 2.0 Mt, with the reduction in exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to rise by 9% from 2020-21 with the expectations of lower world supply.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 11% to nearly 0.6 million acres (mln ac), due to higher area seeded in Montana. Assuming lower yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC at below 0.3 Mt, down 12% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico and the EU.

The situation on the market is developing heavy and the influence on the world market is clear. The increase in prices for lentils in Russia are already obvious. Russia is one of bigger major suppliers of green lentils at the world market while waiting for the Canadian harvest.
Crop failure in Turkey exacerbates price rises.
Turkish and Iranian buyers are willing to pay very high prices for lentils to cover their needs.

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